Ruslan Averin — Market Analysis Journal

552 entries

A running archive of investment thinking — markets, property, capital allocation, and the occasional philosophical detour.

October 2026

40 entries

Amazon Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: AWS After 37%, $220 Billion Capex, the $190 Billion Anthropic Stake and What to Watch

Amazon Q3 2026 earnings preview: report 29 October after the close, guidance $197–202B, Zacks EPS $2.01, AWS after 37…

Markets

Oct 28·7 min read

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Eli Lilly Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: $22.6B Consensus, Mounjaro and Zepbound, Foundayo's First Full Quarter, Guidance

Eli Lilly Q3 2026 earnings preview: FMP consensus $22.58B revenue, Mounjaro and Zepbound, Foundayo's first full quart…

Markets

Oct 28·7 min read

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Shell and TotalEnergies Q3 2026 Preview: Record Refining Margins, Oil Above $100, Buybacks, What to Watch 29 October

Shell and TotalEnergies Q3 2026 results on 29 October: refining margins $42 and $33.2, Brent $97, buybacks $4.2B and…

Markets

Oct 28·6 min read

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Fed on 28 October, ECB on 29 October 2026: What Markets Price for the Dollar, Euro, Bonds and the Hryvnia

Fed and ECB decisions on 28–29 October 2026: hike odds about 10% and 5.3%, CPI 3.7%, euro inflation 3.8%. Scenarios f…

Analysis

Oct 28·6 min read

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Which Hryvnia Banknotes the NBU Is Withdrawing: Old UAH 1–10 Notes, Free Bank Exchange Until 26 February 2027

Which hryvnia banknotes are withdrawn in 2026: UAH 1–10 notes of 2003–2007 designs. Banks swap them free until 26 Feb…

News

Oct 28·6 min read

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Kyiv Flats Sell Faster as Prices Fall: 35 Days to Sell, Two-Room Flats Down 12.5% in Six Months — LUN, October 2026

Kyiv flats sell in 35 days vs 47–48 a year ago while two-room asking prices fell 12.5% in six months to $98,000, LUN'…

Real Estate

Oct 28·6 min read

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Meta Stock Split 2-for-1 via Class C Shares: Q3 2026 Revenue Beats at $64.6B, $9.89B Legal Charge, Capex $135–145B

Meta stock split: one non-voting Class C share per share in January 2027. Q3 2026 revenue $64.6B, +26%, EPS $7.40 ex-…

Markets

Oct 22·7 min read

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Tesla Q3 2026 Earnings: 48-Cent Beat, Auto Margin 18.1%, Capex Cut to $20 Billion, Stock Slips, SpaceX Merger Committees

Tesla Q3 2026 earnings: adjusted EPS 48 cents vs 43 expected, revenue $28.05B, auto margin ex-credits 18.1%, capex cu…

Markets

Oct 22·7 min read

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Brent Tops $111 After Drone Strike on Saudi Aramco's Shaybah Field as Iran's Shadow-Tanker Oil Runs Dry

Brent oil price tops $111 on 22 October 2026 after a drone strike on Aramco's Shaybah field; Iran's floating oil runs…

Markets

Oct 22·7 min read

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NBU Rate Decision on 29 October 2026: What Inflation, Reserves and the Hryvnia Say Before the Meeting

NBU rate decision on 29 October 2026: hold at 16% or hike? Inflation 10%, reserves $47.1bn, hryvnia at 45.03 — what i…

News

Oct 22·6 min read

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Kyiv Flats With Generators and Autonomous Heating: The Winter Premium in Rent and Prices, Autumn 2026

Kyiv flats with generators and autonomous heating let faster and 10–20% dearer, realtors say, as the LUN median rent…

Real Estate

Oct 22·7 min read

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Tesla Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: Consensus, Margin Ex-Credits, Robotaxi, $30 Billion Credit Lines, SpaceX Merger Talk

Tesla Q3 2026 earnings preview: adjusted EPS seen at 45 cents, 486,532 deliveries, auto margin ex-credits 16.3% in Q2…

Markets

Oct 21·7 min read

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Netflix Q3 2026 Earnings: EPS Beat at $0.87, but Stock Falls on Weak Q4 Guidance and $2.7 Billion Ad Revenue Cut

Netflix Q3 2026 earnings: EPS $0.87 beat $0.82, revenue in line, but Q4 guide $13.44B missed and 2026 ad revenue was…

Markets

Oct 21·6 min read

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NABU and SAP Search the National Bank of Ukraine on 21 October: What Is Confirmed and What It Means for the Hryvnia

NABU searches at the National Bank of Ukraine, 21 October: no one detained, no suspicion. What it means for the hryvn…

News

Oct 21·6 min read

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Kyiv New-Build Sales Fall 62% While Prices Rise: 180 Deals in September, Comfort Class Up 17% — What It Means for Buyers

Kyiv new-build sales fell 62% from July to September 2026, to 180 deals, while comfort-class prices rose 17% a year.…

Real Estate

Oct 21·7 min read

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Anthropic IPO at $2 Trillion: Valuation vs the $965 Billion Round, a $16.8 Billion Quarter, Nasdaq-100 and Amazon

Anthropic IPO at about $2 trillion: 2.1x the $965B Series H, Q3 revenue $16.8B, Nasdaq listing reported for November.…

Analysis

Oct 21·7 min read

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Dollar to Hryvnia Forecast 2026–2027: Record Official Rate of 45.60, Cash Market and What Banks and Analysts Expect, Updated Monthly

Dollar to hryvnia forecast: record official rate of UAH 45.60 on 28 October 2026. ICU sees 45.8 at end-2026, about 49…

Analysis

Oct 17·8 min read

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Gas Price for Households in Ukraine 2026: UAH 7.96 Until April 2027, Delivery Tariffs and Monthly Bills

Gas price for households in Ukraine: UAH 7.96 per m³ at Naftogaz until 30 April 2027, other suppliers 7.96–26.99, del…

News

Oct 17·7 min read

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Deposit Rates in Ukraine 2026: Best Hryvnia and Dollar Deposits, UIRD Index, Taxes and Deposit vs OVDP

Deposit rates in Ukraine: UIRD 14.09% for 12 months, 10.85% after 23% tax; best banks 17.5%, OVDP 15.09% tax-free. Up…

Analysis

Oct 17·7 min read

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Nasdaq's Worst Week Since June (16 Oct 2026): AI Debt Fears, Chips Down 8 Days, Brent Near $110, Yields After Hot CPI

Nasdaq worst week since June: down 4.48% to 26,140.03 on 16 Oct 2026 as chips fell 8 days in a row, CoreWeave bond yi…

Markets

Oct 17·7 min read

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CoreWeave (CRWV) Stock and Its $51 Billion Debt: What the AI-Bubble Selloff of October 2026 Is Really About

CoreWeave stock fell 25.2% this week to $61.39 as bond yields neared 15%. What the $51.6 billion of debt and leases i…

Markets

Oct 17·7 min read

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Gas Reserves in Ukraine Before Winter 2026: 16 bcm, the Most Since 2020 — Will It Be Enough and What Households Pay

Gas reserves in Ukraine reach 16 bcm, the most since 2020, above the 13.2 bcm minimum. Will it be enough? Households…

News

Oct 17·6 min read

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Dollar Forecast for Ukraine to 2027: ICU Sees UAH 45.8 at End-2026 and 49.2 at End-2027, Inflation 12%, GDP Falling

Dollar forecast for Ukraine: ICU sees UAH 45.8 at end-2026 and 49.2 at end-2027, inflation 12%, GDP down. What it mea…

Analysis

Oct 17·7 min read

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KOSPI Crash October 15, 2026: Circuit Breaker, 7.57% Drop, Samsung and SK Hynix Plunge, Seven-Day Losing Streak

KOSPI crash on 15 October 2026: index down 7.57% to 5,554.22, circuit breaker, Samsung -9.48%, SK hynix -11.06%, seve…

Markets

Oct 15·7 min read

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Will the Fed Raise Rates in October 2026? Hot CPI at 3.7%, Core at 2.6%, Hike Odds Near 40% and the Election-Eve Problem

Will the Fed raise rates in October 2026? CPI hit 3.7%, core 2.6%, and FedWatch hike odds jumped to 41.5%. The 28 Oct…

Analysis

Oct 15·7 min read

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TSMC Q3 2026 Earnings: Net Profit NT$763.1B Beats, Q4 Guidance $52.3–54.3B as Asian Chip Stocks Crash

TSMC Q3 2026 earnings: net profit NT$763.1B beat LSEG's NT$746.3B, revenue $46.72B, Q4 guidance $52.3–54.3B, 2026 gro…

Markets

Oct 15·7 min read

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Frosts in Ukraine: Heating Season Dates, Gas at UAH 7.96, Power at 4.32, Diesel Above 100 — What Winter Will Cost

Frosts in Ukraine: ground frosts to −3°C on 15 October, heating season dates, gas UAH 7.96, power 4.32, diesel above…

News

Oct 15·7 min read

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Kyiv Suburbs House Prices October 2026: Irpin +21%, Sofiivska Borshchahivka +39%, House Rents +29% Before Winter

Kyiv suburbs house prices, October 2026: median $120,000, Irpin +21%, Bucha $155,000, house rents +29%, eOselya loans…

Real Estate

Oct 15·7 min read

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Pension Indexation in Russia 2027: +6.8% in February, +3.3% in April, Average RUB 29,904 and What the Duma Passed

Pension indexation in Russia 2027: +6.8% from 1 February, +3.3% from 1 April, average RUB 29,904, pension point RUB 1…

News

Oct 15·7 min read

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Power Outage Schedules Winter 2026: What a Generator, EcoFlow Station or Home Battery Really Costs per kWh in Ukraine

Power outage schedules winter 2026: Kyiv per-building schedules, 3–8 hours in Kyiv region. Generator UAH 143/hour on…

Analysis

Oct 13·7 min read

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Winter Support of UAH 19,400 in 2026: Who Gets It, How to Apply by 30 October and What the Money Buys

Winter Support UAH 19,400 per household in frontline communities: who qualifies, where to apply in person by 30 Octob…

News

Oct 13·6 min read

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Ukraine Inflation Hits 10% in September 2026: What It Means for Deposits, OVDP, the Dollar and the NBU on 29 October

Ukraine inflation September 2026: 10.0% y/y, 2.1% m/m, core 8.8%. After 23% tax, deposits barely beat it; OVDP pay 15…

Analysis

Oct 13·7 min read

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Average Pension in Ukraine Is UAH 7,288 in October 2026: 19% Get Over UAH 10,000, New Social Assistance Law From 2027

Average pension in Ukraine on 1 October 2026: UAH 7,287.81, up 13.2%. 19.02% get over UAH 10,000, 44% under 5,000. Wh…

News

Oct 13·6 min read

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Fuel Prices in Ukraine, 15 October 2026: OKKO Diesel UAH 100.90, Autogas Up to UAH 49.90, A-95 Unchanged

Fuel prices in Ukraine on 15 October 2026: OKKO diesel +UAH 1 to 100.90, autogas to 49.90, A-95 unchanged. WOG, SOCAR…

Markets

Oct 13·7 min read

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Ukraine Freezes UAH 18bn of VAT Refunds: $27bn Still Needed by Year-End, Budget Gap and the Risk for the Hryvnia

VAT refunds frozen in Ukraine: UAH 18bn halted, UAH 46bn stuck in treasury, $27bn still due from partners. What it me…

Analysis

Oct 13·7 min read

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No UAH 5,000 Banknote: NBU on the 2,000 Note, UAH 973 Billion in Cash and Why Hyperinflation Fears Miss the Numbers

UAH 5,000 banknote: the NBU says no. 366,100 UAH 2,000 notes in circulation, UAH 973bn cash, 1,000s hold 56% of value…

News

Oct 13·6 min read

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Employee Reservation New Rules 2026: Limits Cut to 85% and 60%, UAH 25,941 Wage Threshold and the Cost for Business

Employee reservation 2026: draft cuts limits to 85% for defence and energy, 60% for utilities, changes the quota base…

News

Oct 13·6 min read

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Dollar Rate in Ukraine, 15 October 2026: NBU 44.98 After a Record 45.08, Cash 45.29, Interventions and Forecasts

Dollar rate in Ukraine on 15 October 2026: official UAH 44.98 after a record 45.08 on 14 October, cash 44.78–45.29, N…

Markets

Oct 13·7 min read

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Bank of America (BAC) Q3 2026 Results: Adjusted EPS $1.08 vs $1.10 Expected, $1.2B AML Charge, NII $16.4B

Bank of America Q3 2026 results: adjusted EPS $1.08 vs $1.10, revenue $30.0B, NII $16.4B, $1.2B AML charge. Shares fe…

Markets

Oct 13·7 min read

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Morgan Stanley (MS) Q3 2026 Results: EPS $3.03 vs $2.83–3.12 Expected, Equities $5.8B, Wealth Margin 30.4%

Morgan Stanley Q3 2026 results: EPS $3.03 vs $2.83–3.12 consensus, equities $5.8B, wealth margin 30.4%, $232B net new…

Markets

Oct 13·7 min read

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40 entries